MacroDEMO
Hypothetical central bank cuts policy rate at next meeting
- Model P(YES)
- 58.0%
- YES ask
- 0.43
- Net EV / contract
- +0.150
- Capital at risk
- $430.00
1,000 × YES · deadline 2026-12-15
Market Monitor
SYNTHETIC / DEMO Curated hypothetical events · manual demo prices · no live feed
Events shown
8
of 8 synthetic
Largest modeled edge
+0.150
EV / contract, YES side
Avg model − ask
+0.012
Feed status
MANUAL
Demo values, not live
MacroDEMO
Hypothetical Q4 GDP flash estimate above 2.0%
- Model P(YES)
- 45.0%
- YES ask
- 0.52
- Net EV / contract
- −0.070
- Capital at risk
- $520.00
1,000 × YES · deadline 2027-01-30
EnergyDEMO
Benchmark crude settles above $90 on deadline
- Model P(YES)
- 30.0%
- YES ask
- 0.24
- Net EV / contract
- +0.060
- Capital at risk
- $240.00
1,000 × YES · deadline 2026-12-31
EnergyDEMO
Hypothetical pipeline permit approved by year-end
- Model P(YES)
- 62.0%
- YES ask
- 0.66
- Net EV / contract
- −0.040
- Capital at risk
- $660.00
1,000 × YES · deadline 2026-12-31
Digital assetsDEMO
Token X spot ETF-style product approved
- Model P(YES)
- 35.0%
- YES ask
- 0.29
- Net EV / contract
- +0.060
- Capital at risk
- $290.00
1,000 × YES · deadline 2027-03-31
Digital assetsDEMO
Coin Y trades above 2× its reference level
- Model P(YES)
- 18.0%
- YES ask
- 0.21
- Net EV / contract
- −0.030
- Capital at risk
- $210.00
1,000 × YES · deadline 2027-06-30
RegulatoryDEMO
Data-privacy bill passes upper chamber
- Model P(YES)
- 50.0%
- YES ask
- 0.47
- Net EV / contract
- +0.030
- Capital at risk
- $470.00
1,000 × YES · deadline 2026-11-30
RegulatoryDEMO
Competition authority blocks hypothetical merger
- Model P(YES)
- 25.0%
- YES ask
- 0.31
- Net EV / contract
- −0.060
- Capital at risk
- $310.00
1,000 × YES · deadline 2027-02-28
Model probability vs market prices (%)
SYNTHETIC / DEMOAsks are executable prices, not exact probabilities. “1 − NO ask” shown as the YES-equivalent from the NO side.