50K → 150K · Campaign Control
PAPER ONLY · ASPIRATIONAL TARGET A target is not a forecast or an expected return
How this works
- 1Configure & lock the campaign→
- 2Load live feeds→
- 3Research a candidate→
- 4Freeze a hypothesis→
- 5Simulate→
- 6Record a budget-checked paper position→
- 7Resolve→
- 8Review
Everything is paper and stored only in this browser. Market prices come from real feeds; any probability other than the market's own is your assumption.
Configure campaign
Evidence status
- Target · set by you
- Hypothesis · a registered research record
- Paper tested · at least one settled paper position
- Live validated · unavailable — no execution records exist
Source/evidence quality (Discovery research score) is tracked separately from any modeled upside.
Payoff geometry · one fully collateralized binary
Spend R at all-in unit cost c → net profit if it pays = R·(1/c − 1); if it fails, you lose R.
To make G = $100,000.00 risking at most R requires c ≤ R/(R+G).
With R = $15,000.00: c ≤ $15,000.00/$115,000.00 ≈ 0.130435
A price this low usually means the market prices the outcome as unlikely. A cheap contract is not "underpriced" without independent evidence. All N contracts on one event settle together.
Profit if it pays (log scale). If it does not pay, loss = R in every case.
- Max c for G
- 0.1304
- Payout multiple
- 7.67x
- Contracts
- 115,000
- If fails
- −$15,000.00
- Spend at c=0.10
- $11,111.11